I am having a tough time deciding my race pace for the Buffalo Boogie. Looking at my last 4 races, I tend to run negative splits throughout (i.e., final .11 is faster than mile 3, which is faster than mile 2, which is faster than mile 1)—the exception being the Komen, which I ran with Julie, and really held back for most of the killer 3rd mile, so that I didn’t leave her too far behind. Some of that is surely due to the congestion at the start of the big races. In the Bunny Boogie, which was by far the smallest race, I turned in the most even pace, with only 3 seconds separating my time from mile 1 and my time from mile 3.

To equal my current PR, from the Fort Worth Zoo Run Run, I need to average 8:32/mile. Of course, that doesn’t take into account any additional distance I must cover if I don’t run perfect tangents. Knowing that the last mile is mostly uphill, do I go out faster than 8:32/mile, leaving some breathing room at the end, do I shoot for even splits, or do I hope for more negative splits, perhaps saving a slight amount of energy to really push that 3rd mile?

Considering the mostly flat to slightly downhill first two miles, I am inclined to go out a little faster than my target pace, and hope to just hold on in mile 3.

What do you think?